IHSG Anjlok Hari Ini? Penyebab, Dampak, dan Strategi Investor

IHSG Anjlok atau “IHSG collapse/crash” adalah momen ketika Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Jakarta Composite Index) turun signifikan dalam waktu singkat – biasanya 2%+ dalam satu hari atau 5%+ dalam beberapa hari. Momen seperti ini menciptakan panic, uncertainty, dan fear di kalangan investor. Namun bagi investor yang informed dan prepared, IHSG anjlok bisa menjadi peluang emas untuk membeli saham berkualitas dengan harga lebih murah. Artikel ini akan memberikan panduan komprehensif tentang IHSG anjlok – penyebab, dampak ekonomi, strategi investor terbaik, hingga cara menggunakan business bank account untuk mengelola krisis pasar dengan tenang dan profesional.

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1. Apa Itu IHSG Anjlok? Definisi, Sejarah, dan Trigger Points

A. Definisi IHSG Anjlok

IHSG Anjlok atau market crash adalah penurunan signifikan dari IHSG dalam waktu singkat, biasanya disebabkan oleh faktor eksternal (global) atau internal (lokal) yang mengubah sentiment pasar drastis dari bullish menjadi bearish.

Klasifikasi Tingkat Severity:

Tingkat	Penurunan	Severity	Recovery Time
Minor Correction	-1% hingga -2%	Normal	Intra-day atau 1-3 hari
Correction	-2% hingga -5%	Moderate	1-2 minggu
Significant Decline	-5% hingga -10%	High	1-2 bulan
Crash	-10%+	Severe	3-12 bulan
Meltdown	-20%+	Extreme	6-24+ bulan

Current Status (November 2025):

Recent IHSG movements: Mostly corrections (-2% to -3%)
Recovery pattern: Relatively quick (hours to 1-2 days)
Sentiment: Cautious, but stabilizing

B. Sejarah IHSG Anjlok Terbesar

Tanggal	IHSG Penurunan	Penyebab	Recovery Time
13 Oct 1997	-40% (Asian Crisis)	Currency collapse	18 months
15 Sep 2008	-50% (Global Financial Crisis)	Lehman collapse	24+ months
26 Jan 2015	-25% (Correction)	China devaluation	6 months
12 Mar 2020	-35% (COVID crash)	Pandemic panic	6 months
18 Mar 2025	-7% (Recent crash)	Growth worries + forced sell	2-3 weeks
27 Oct 2025	-3.8% (Recent correction)	MSCI concerns + Prajogo news	3-5 days

Key Insight: Setiap IHSG anjlok selalu di-recover. Investor yang patient dan disciplined selalu profit dalam jangka panjang.

C. Common Trigger Points untuk IHSG Anjlok

Faktor Eksternal (Global):

✅ Fed Rate Decision – Jika Fed raise rates, emerging markets tertekan
✅ Global Recession Signal – Jika US atau China economy tunjukkan weakness
✅ Geopolitical Tensions – War, terrorism, political crisis di regions
✅ Commodity Price Crash – Oil, metal prices collapse → EM currencies weak
✅ Safe Haven Flight – Investor move ke USD, gold, treasuries

Faktor Internal (Lokal):

✅ Conglomerate Saham Crash – Prajogo (BRPT, BREN, TPIA) atau Sinar Mas (DSSA) turun drastis
✅ Index Rebalancing News – MSCI/EM exclusion rumors (like Oct 2025)
✅ Policy Uncertainty – Tax changes, regulation, political shifts
✅ Rupiah Weakness – USD strengthens, foreign investors reduce exposure
✅ Corporate Scandals – Forced selling dari margin traders, liquidity crisis

Psychological Factor:

Panic Selling – Retail investors sell at fear, creating cascading effect
Technical Breakdown – Chart breaks support, algorithms trigger stops
News Shock – Unexpected negative news spooks market

2. Penyebab IHSG Anjlok: Analisis Mendalam Faktor-Faktor Utama

A. Penyebab Anjlok Oktober 2025 (Recent Example)

27 Oktober 2025 IHSG Collapse (Down 3.8%):

1. Prajogo Pangestu Saham Crisis

Background:

Saham-saham afiliasi Prajogo (BRPT, BREN, TPIA, CUAN) adalah saham “heavyweights”
Combined weight di IHSG: ~5-7% dari total index
October 2025: MSCI rebalancing rumors → investors worry about index exclusion

Impact:

BRPT down 8%, BREN -29.5 points, TPIA -7.45%
Total negative contribution: -61.78 index points
Cascading effect: As Prajogo stocks fall, IHSG falls with them

Lesson: Conglomerate saham very influential (due to market cap weight)

2. MSCI Index Rebalancing Concerns

What Happened:

Rumors circulated that MSCI might exclude Prajogo stocks from EM index
If true: Foreign funds must sell (forced selling)
Anticipation of forced selling created pre-emptive selling

Impact:

Foreign investor sentiment turned negative
Retail investors panic selling “just in case”
Classic “sell first, ask questions later” mentality

Outcome:

MSCI announcement eventually came (5 Nov 2025) but impact already priced in
By 27 Oct, crash was “forgiven” by market

3. Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA) News

The Trigger:

DSSA (Sinar Mas conglomerate holding) released news that spooked investors
Combined with Prajogo concerns = double whammy negative
DSSA contributed -30.12 index points alone

B. Root Cause Analysis: Why IHSG Crashes Happen

Theoretical Framework (From Academic Research):

Liquidity Shock Model (Brunnermeier & Pedersen, 2009)
Liquidity dries up → bid-ask spread widens
Investors forced to sell at any price → cascade
IHSG anjlok October 2025 followed this pattern

Financial Accelerator Model (Bernanke, Gertler, Gilchrist, 1999)
Stock market crash → wealth effect → demand drops
Firms tighten credit → investment falls
Dominoe effect spreads to real economy

Sentiment Spillover Theory (Shiller, 2015)
Initial shock → Fear spreads → Herd behavior
Herding in stock market → herding in bonds, forex
IHSG crash can become regional/global if big enough

3. Dampak IHSG Anjlok: Dari Pasar ke Ekonomi Riil

A. Dampak Langsung pada Pasar Saham

1. Wealth Destruction

What Happens:

Jika IHSG down 5%, portfolio value investor berkurang ~5%
Example: Investor punya Rp 100 juta portfolio → Rp 95 juta (Rp 5 juta loss)
For whole market: Rp 639 triliun lost in ONE DAY (Oct 27, 2025)

Psychological Impact:

Investor stress increases
Sleep loss, anxiety common
Decision-making quality deteriorates (fear-based)

2. Volatility Spike

Definition: Volatility = measure of price fluctuations (higher = more jumpy)

Effect:

IHSG crashes accompanied by VIX-like spike
Stock prices swing 3-5% intraday (normal is 1-2%)
Difficult for traders to predict moves

3. Liquidity Crisis

What Happens:

Volume spikes initially (panic selling)
Then volume dries up (no buyers)
Bid-ask spread widens (harder to buy/sell)
Example: Normally you can buy at Rp 9.000, but during crash, lowest bid is Rp 8.950

B. Dampak Sekunder: Capital Outflow & Currency Pressure

1. Foreign Investor Selling

Pattern:

IHSG crash → Foreign portfolio managers (not Indonesia-specific) rebalance
“Emerging market” category gets hit → EM ETF selling
Indonesia’s EM allocation gets sold automatically

Data Point (March 2025 crash):

Foreign investor outflow: Rp 2-3 triliun per day
Rupiah weakened from Rp 15.000 to Rp 16.000+ per USD
Cascade effect: Outflow worsens Rupiah, which worsens IHSG

2. Rupiah Depreciation

Connection:

Foreign investors sell IDR to get USD
More USD buying pressure → Rupiah weakens
Weak Rupiah makes stocks expensive in USD terms
Vicious cycle: Rupiah weakness → more foreign selling

C. Dampak Tertier: Ekonomi Riil

1. Confidence Effect on Business Investment

Mechanism:

Company CEO sees market crash → becomes pessimistic about future
Postpones capex (capital expenditure), delays new projects
Hiring freezes initiated
Supply chain disruptions possible

Research Finding (Investment Under Uncertainty, Dixit & Pindyck 1994):

Businesses invest when uncertain = economically inefficient
Market crashes increase uncertainty → businesses freeze investment
Economic slowdown follows 2-3 months later

2. Job Market Pressure

When IHSG crashes → Companies face liquidity crisis:

If company stock crashes 20%, market cap drops Rp 10 triliun
Creditors become nervous, demand early repayment
Companies forced to downsize to improve liquidity
PHK (retrenchment/layoff) becomes necessary

Data Point (March 2025):

10+ large companies announced layoff plans
Retail investors facing job loss + portfolio loss (double impact)

3. Consumption & GDP Growth Impact

Consumer Wealth Effect:

Household sees investment portfolio down 30%
Psychological impact: Feels poor, reduces consumption
Restaurant visits down, luxury purchases postponed
This affects retailers, restaurants, malls = slower GDP growth

Multiplier Effect:

If consumers reduce spending 1% → GDP growth may fall 0.3-0.5%
If GDP growth falls from 5% to 4% → unemployment rises
Unemployment rise → consumption falls further (negative spiral)

4. Strategi Investor Saat IHSG Anjlok: Dari Panic ke Profit

A. Psychology: The First Step is Mental Preparation

Common Investor Mistakes Saat Panic:

Mistake	Why Wrong	Better Approach
Panic sell at bottom	Selling at worst time (lock in losses)	Hold, even buy
Try to time exact bottom	Impossible (and stressful)	Dollar-cost average
Check portfolio every hour	Increases stress, poor decisions	Check monthly only
Listen to doomsayers	Media sensationalism	Focus on fundamentals
Blame yourself for not selling earlier	Hindsight bias, self-torture	Accept and move forward

Mentally Prepare:

✅ Accept that crashes happen every 3-5 years
✅ Understand that your 10-year plan still intact
✅ View crashes as “buying opportunities” (reframe mindset)
✅ Remember: Every crash in history was eventually recovered

B. Strategy #1: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) During Crash

Definition: Invest fixed amount regularly, regardless of market price

How It Works During Crash:

Scenario: Normal Market

You invest Rp 1 juta monthly @ Rp 10.000/share = 100 shares
Month 1: 100 shares @ Rp 10.000 each
Month 2: 100 shares @ Rp 10.000 each
Month 3: 100 shares @ Rp 10.000 each
Total: 300 shares @ Rp 10.000 average = Rp 3 juta invested

Scenario: Market Crashes (Price drops to Rp 7.000)

You CONTINUE investing Rp 1 juta monthly (don’t stop!)
Month 1: 100 shares @ Rp 10.000 each
Month 2: 143 shares @ Rp 7.000 each (MORE shares at cheaper price!)
Month 3: 143 shares @ Rp 7.000 each
Total: 386 shares @ Rp 7.75 average cost = better average!

Benefit: You bought MORE shares at crash prices → bigger position when recovery comes

Psychological Benefit:

✅ Removes emotion (automatic investing)
✅ Forces you to buy low (discipline)
✅ No stress about “timing the market”
✅ Proven to outperform lump-sum investing in volatile markets

Recommendation: If you’re long-term investor (5-10 years), KEEP doing DCA during crashes

C. Strategy #2: Sector Rotation to Defensive Stocks

Concept: When IHSG crashes, rotate from cyclical to defensive stocks

Cyclical Stocks (Gets hit hard):

Otomotif (ASII) – people delay car buying
Properti (CTRA) – people postpone home buying
Konstruksi – projects get delayed

Defensive Stocks (More resilient):

Consumer staples (INDF, ICBP, UNVR) – people still need to eat
Farmasi (KLBF) – people still buy medicine
Telekomunikasi (TLKM) – people keep paying phone bills
Utilities (power companies)

Real Example (Oct 2025 Crash):

INDF (consumer staples) = -0.4% (minimal loss)
ASII (automotive) = flat to small loss
Conglomerate (BRPT, BREN) = down 8%+

Action: If you have capex stocks, consider trimming and rotating to consumer staples

D. Strategy #3: Buy on the Dip

Definition: When crash happens, identify quality stocks at discount and buy more

How to Execute:

Identify Quality Stocks (Before crash):
Companies with strong fundamentals (ROE >15%, debt/equity <1)
Consistent dividen payer (5+ years)
Market leader in their sector

Set Buying Targets:
Normal level: BBCA @ Rp 9.000
10% crash target: Buy if Rp 8.100
20% crash target: Buy if Rp 7.200
30% crash target: Build bigger position if Rp 6.300

Execute During Crash:
When IHSG crashes 3% → BBCA probably down 2-3%
If BBCA at target price → BUY (strong conviction)
Use limit orders (don’t chase at market price)

Real Example (October 2025):

BBCA was @ Rp 9.400 (before Oct 27 crash)
Oct 27 IHSG down 3.8%, BBCA might down 2-3% → maybe Rp 9.150
Set buy order @ Rp 9.000 (psychological support)
If filled → Great! Picked up quality stock at discount

Advantage: You build quality stock position during fear = best risk/reward

E. Strategy #4: Use Stop-Loss to Protect Downside

Definition: Auto-sell order at predetermined price (to cut losses if wrong)

How to Use:

Buy at Rp 10.000 (confident about company)
Set stop-loss at Rp 9.000 (will auto-sell if goes below)
Maximum loss: 10% (controlled, known in advance)

Advantage:

✅ Prevents emotional “holding until recovery” when thesis changes
✅ Protects against black swan events
✅ Enforces discipline

When to Use Stop-Loss:

✅ Short-term trading (hold 1-3 months)
✅ High-conviction trades (but admit when wrong)
❌ NOT for long-term investing (can get stopped out at wrong time)

F. Strategy #5: Build Emergency Cash Reserve

Preparation Before Crash:

Keep 20-30% of portfolio in cash / bonds / money market
When crash happens → Emergency fund ready to deploy
THEN buy quality stocks at discount

Example:

Total portfolio: Rp 100 juta
70% invested in stocks: Rp 70 juta
30% emergency cash: Rp 30 juta
IHSG crashes 30% → Quality stocks now 30% cheaper
Use Rp 30 juta emergency fund to buy 30% more stocks at discount
Result: Bigger position, lower average cost

5. Integrasi Strategi IHSG Anjlok dengan Business Bank Account: Crisis Management

A. Mengapa Business Bank Account Penting Saat IHSG Anjlok?

Key Benefits:

✅ Psychological Separation: Investment account terpisah dari personal → less emotional panic
✅ Cash Management: Emergency fund clearly tracked, accessible
✅ Tax Documentation: All crash losses documented for tax deduction (if applicable)
✅ Buying Power: Clear cash position ready for deployment during crash
✅ Credibility: When applying for margin/leverage credit, bank sees professional trader

B. Recommended Business Bank Account Setup for Crisis

1. Mandiri Tabungan Bisnis (BEST FOR CRASH MANAGEMENT)

Why Best:

✅ Seamless integration dengan Mandiri Sekuritas
✅ Can instantly access emergency cash if needed
✅ Sweep features for automatic cash management
✅ 24/7 app access (check balance anytime during chaos)

Setup During Normal Times:

Maintain 30-40% cash position in Mandiri Bisnis
Link dengan Mandiri Sekuritas for instant transfer
Set up auto-alerts if portfolio down >10%

During Crash:

Calm down (check Mandiri Bisnis account, see cash ready)
Analyze opportunities (quality stocks at discount)
Transfer from Mandiri Bisnis to Sekuritas
Execute buying strategy (DCA or buy on dip)

2. BNI Taplus Bisnis (FLEXIBLE CASH BUFFER)

Why Good:

✅ Rp 500K minimum (very accessible)
✅ High transaction limits (Rp 50M+/day)
✅ Good untuk rapid cash deployment

C. Crisis Management Financial Plan (Business Account Setup)

Scenario (Crash Expected in 2026):

Phase 1: Normal Times (Now – Before Crash)

Monthly Activity:

Income: Rp 20 juta salary
Allocation:
Rp 10 juta → Mandiri Bisnis (emergency fund building)
Rp 5 juta → Mandiri Sekuritas (regular DCA buying)
Rp 5 juta → Personal (living expenses)

After 6 Months:

Mandiri Bisnis emergency fund: Rp 60 juta (ready for crash)
Mandiri Sekuritas investments: Rp 30 juta (already gaining maybe +5%)
Total portfolio: Rp 90 juta

Phase 2: IHSG Crashes 20% (Hypothetical)

Market Condition:

IHSG falls 20% in 2 weeks
Quality stocks down 20% also
Panic selling everywhere

Your Action (Using Business Account):

Day 1 of Crash:
Check Mandiri Bisnis: Rp 60 juta ready ✅
Check Mandiri Sekuritas portfolio: Down Rp 6 juta (paper loss)
Mental clarity: “I have Rp 60M emergency fund, calmly analyze”

Day 3 of Crash:
Identify 3 quality stocks now at crash discount
Transfer Rp 20 juta from Mandiri Bisnis → Sekuritas
Buy undervalued stocks (follow buy-on-dip strategy)

Day 7 of Crash:
Market stabilizes, some recovery starts
Continue DCA buying (Rp 5 juta) from normal income
Keep Rp 40 juta in emergency fund (for further dips)

Phase 3: Recovery (2-6 months later)

Recovery Scenario:

IHSG recovers 20% from crash low
Your portfolio:
Original Rp 30 juta: Now worth Rp 36 juta (recovered)
Rp 20 juta crash-buys: Now worth Rp 24 juta (+20% already)
Cash reserve remaining: Rp 40 juta
Total: Rp 100 juta

Profit Calculation:

Started with Rp 90 juta (pre-crash)
Spent Rp 20 juta crash-buying
Now worth Rp 100 juta
Net gain: Rp 10 juta (11% over 6 months!) + preserved capital

6. FAQ: Pertanyaan Umum tentang IHSG Anjlok

Q1: Kapan IHSG Anjlok Lagi?

A: Unpredictable, but patterns exist:

Historical Pattern:

Major crashes (>10%): Every 3-5 years
Moderate corrections (5-10%): Every 1-2 years
Minor corrections (2-5%): Every 3-6 months

2025 Crashes So Far:

March 18: -7% (recorded)
October 14: -3% (recorded)
October 27: -3.8% (recorded)

Prediction for 2026:

Likely: 1-2 more corrections possible (can’t predict exact timing)
Be prepared, but don’t wait for crash to invest

Q2: Apakah Aman Buy During Crash?

A: YES, if you have:

✅ Strong fundamentals (researched the company)
✅ Long time horizon (5-10 years)
✅ Emergency fund outside investment account
✅ Emotional discipline (can handle further 20% decline)

Not Safe If:

❌ Using leverage (margin) – can get forced sold
❌ No emergency fund – might panic sell later
❌ Need money in 2 years – too short horizon
❌ Buying based on “IHSG will recovery” (gambling mentality)

Q3: Berapa Persen Harus Keep as Cash During Crash?

A: Depends on your situation:

Investor Type	Cash %	Reason
Conservative	50-60%	Most defensive
Moderate	30-40%	Balance
Aggressive	20-30%	More invested
Very Aggressive	10-20%	Fully deployed

Recommendation: Keep at least 20% cash (for psychological comfort + opportunities)

Q4: Apakah Margin/Leverage Aman During Crash?

A: NO, avoid margin during crash:

Why Dangerous:

You bought stock @ Rp 10.000 with Rp 1M own + Rp 1M margin = Rp 2M total
Crash 30%: Stock now worth Rp 7.000 = Rp 1.4M value
Broker’s margin call: “Need 50% collateral” = need Rp 700K minimum
You only have Rp 200K loss capacity = forced sell at worst time

Forced Liquidation Cascade:

You forced sell at Rp 7.000 (lock in loss)
This contributes to market crash
Your forced selling helps push others to panic sell too

Better: Use cash leverage only (borrow from bank, not broker)

Q5: Bagaimana Tax Impact jika IHSG Anjlok & Saya Jual?

A: Two scenarios:

Scenario 1: Hold Long-Term (>30 hari)

Capital loss: 0% tax (already at loss)
You can deduct loss from future gains
Example: Lose Rp 10M this year, gain Rp 15M next year = only pay tax on Rp 5M gain

Scenario 2: Short-Term Trade (<30 hari)

If sold at profit: Pay normal income tax (up to 30%)
If sold at loss: No tax benefit usually (depends on tax rules)

Recommendation: Keep trades >30 days for tax efficiency

Q6: Apakah Dividen Companies “Safe” During Crash?

A: More stable, but NOT 100% safe:

Dividend Companies During Crash:

Stock price still drops (market risk)
Dividen might be cut (if company faces financial stress)
But historically recover faster

Example (Oct 2025 crash):

UNVR (dividen company): Down 0.8% (minimal)
BRPT (non-dividen company): Down 8%+ (severe)

Benefit: Dividend companies have more “cushion” during crashes

Kesimpulan: IHSG Anjlok Adalah Normal – Jadilah Prepared, Calm, dan Profitable

Summary Key Points:

✅ IHSG Anjlok adalah normal:

Happens every 1-5 years
Always recovered historically
Expected part of investing

✅ Root Causes:

Global factors (Fed policy, geopolitical)
Conglomerate saham crashes
Index rebalancing rumors
Forced selling / margin calls
Sentiment shifts (fear psychology)

✅ Dampak:

Immediate: Wealth destruction, volatility
Secondary: Capital outflow, Rupiah weakness
Tertiary: Job losses, GDP slowdown

✅ Strategi Terbaik:

Dollar-cost averaging (keep buying)
Sector rotation (defensive stocks)
Buy on the dip (quality at discount)
Use stop-loss (protect downside)
Build emergency cash (ready for opportunities)

✅ Business Bank Account Role:

Psychological separation (less panic)
Cash management (emergency fund)
Tax documentation (crash losses)
Buying power (deploy at best times)

Final Recommendation:

For IHSG Anjlok Events:

Don’t panic – crashes are opportunities, not disasters
Don’t try to time bottom – use DCA consistently
Rotate to defensive – consumer staples more stable
Have emergency cash – ready to deploy
Keep business account separate – maintain discipline
Focus on 5-10 year plan – short-term pain, long-term gain
Remember: Every investor who’s holding 10+ years has profited

Action Items (For Next IHSG Crash):

✅ Prepare emergency fund NOW (30-40% portfolio in cash)
✅ Setup business account (Mandiri recommended)
✅ Identify 5-10 quality stocks to buy on dips
✅ Set DCA amount (Rp 500K-1M monthly)
✅ Plan sector rotation (where to move funds)
✅ Accept that buying opportunity is coming

IHSG anjlok hari ini? Bukan kabar buruk – itu peluang emas untuk investor yang prepared! 🚀